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- Birchcliff Energy Ltd. Announces Strong Q2 2019 Results Resulting in an Expanded 2019 Capital Program August 14, 20192:00 PM Globe Newswire CALGARY, Alberta, Aug. 14, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (“Birchcliff” or the “Corporation”) (TSX: BIR) is pleased to announce its financial and operational results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2019 and an expanded 2019 capital program. Birchcliff’s unaudited interim condensed financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2019 and related management’s discussion and analysis (the “MD&A”) will be available on its website at www.birchcliffenergy.com and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Birchcliff is also pleased to provide an operational update, including encouraging results from its recent well pads brought on production in Pouce Coupe and Gordondale. “We had strong results in the second quarter, which were underpinned by the strong performance of our assets and our new oil and liquids-rich wells, the successful execution of our capital program, our record low operating costs and our natural gas market diversification initiatives. Our average production for the quarter was 78,453 boe/d, which was ahead of our internal budget and represents a 3% increase from Q2 2018. Given these production results, we expect that we would have achieved the mid-point of our 2019 annual average production guidance of 76,000 to 78,000 boe/d, before taking into account the expansion to our 2019 capital program,” commented Jeff Tonken, President and Chief Executive Officer of Birchcliff. “As a result of our achievements year-to-date and our strong quarterly results and balance sheet, we have determined to drill an additional 7 (7.0 net) horizontal wells in 2019, all of which are expected to be on-stream by November 1, 2019. Accordingly, we have increased our capital budget by $38 million to $242 million. We anticipate that this additional capital will allow us to maintain production in 2020 at or near current levels and reduce the amount of capital that we will need to spend in 2020. Notwithstanding this increase, our capital expenditures in 2019 are still expected to be significantly less than our forecast of 2019 adjusted funds flow. Based on the strong performance of our wells and the expansion to our capital program, we are increasing our 2019 annual average production guidance to 77,000 to 79,000 boe/d.” Q2 2019 Highlights Production averaged 78,453 boe/d (6% light oil, 7% condensate, 9% NGLs and 78% natural gas), a 3% increase from Q2 2018. Liquids production weighting increased by 3% from Q1 2019 and by 8% from Q2 2018. Adjusted funds flow of $74.0 million, or $0.28 per basic common share, a 2% increase and a 4% increase, respectively, from Q2 2018. Birchcliff generated $6.0 million of free funds flow in Q2 2019. Net loss to common shareholders of $9.5 million, or $0.04 per basic common share as compared to the net income to common shareholders of $6.4 million and $0.02 per basic common share in Q2 2018. Included in the net loss is an after-tax unrealized mark-to-market loss on financial instruments of $35.7 million, or $0.13 per basic common share, and a future income tax recovery of $18.9 million, or $0.07 per basic common share, resulting from the change in Alberta’s corporate income tax rate from 12% to 8% over the next four years. Record low operating expense of $3.17/boe, a 6% decrease from Q2 2018. Operating netback of $11.38/boe, a 14% decrease from Q2 2018. Birchcliff drilled 5 (5.0 net) wells and brought 14 (14.0 net) wells on production. F&D capital expenditures were $67.9 million, which were approximately $6.0 million (9%) less than Birchcliff’s Q2 2019 adjusted funds flow. Total capital expenditures were $68.5 million. As at June 30, 2019, Birchcliff’s long-term bank debt was $622.3 million and its total debt was $654.7 million, a 1% increase and a 1% decrease, respectively, from its long-term and total debt as at June 30, 2018. Encouraging Initial Production Rates in Pouce Coupe and Gordondale Birchcliff’s 14-06-079-12W6M six-well pad in Pouce Coupe had an aggregate average production rate of 6,350 boe/d (27.9 MMcf/d of raw natural gas and 1,690 bbls/d of condensate) during the initial 30 days of production. Birchcliff’s 01-10-078-11W6M five-well pad in Gordondale had an aggregate average production rate of 4,446 boe/d (2,114 bbls/d of oil and 14.0 MMcf/d of raw natural gas) during the initial 30 days of production. Expanded 2019 Capital Program and Revised Guidance Birchcliff has expanded its 2019 capital program (the “2019 Capital Program”) to include the drilling and bringing on production of an additional 7 (7.0 net) HZ wells in 2019. F&D capital expenditures are now expected to be $242 million. Birchcliff expects to generate approximately $335 million of adjusted funds flow and $93 million of free funds flow (adjusted funds flow less F&D capital expenditures) in 2019. SECOND QUARTER 2019 FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30, 2019 2018(5) 2019 2018(5) OPERATING Average production Light oil – (bbls/d) 4,853 5,599 4,827 4,872 Condensate – (bbls/d)(1) 5,505 3,934 4,963 3,808 NGLs – (bbls/d)(1) 6,923 6,036 6,834 5,816 Natural gas – (Mcf/d) 367,033 364,360 360,327 370,880 Total – boe/d 78,453 76,296 76,678 76,309 Average realized sales price (CDN$)(2) Light oil – (per bbl) 72.25 79.55 69.20 76.33 Condensate – (per bbl)(1) 71.69 87.52 68.93 85.35 NGLs – (per bbl)(1) 11.13 21.94 14.36 23.46 Natural gas – (per Mcf) 1.95 2.01 2.73 2.37 Total – per boe 19.59 21.68 22.92 22.45 NETBACK AND COST ($/boe) Petroleum and natural gas revenue(2) 19.59 21.69 22.93 22.45 Royalty expense (0.75 ) (1.53 ) (0.98 ) (1.48 ) Operating expense (3.17 ) (3.36 ) (3.28 ) (3.57 ) Transportation and other expense (4.29 ) (3.64 ) (4.45 ) (3.60 ) Operating netback ($/boe) 11.38 13.16 14.22 13.80 G&A expense, net (0.87 ) (0.88 ) (0.89 ) (0.88 ) Interest expense (0.92 ) (0.96 ) (0.97 ) (0.96 ) Realized gain (loss) on financial instruments 0.74 (0.93 ) 1.34 (0.69 ) Other income 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Adjusted funds flow netback ($/boe) 10.36 10.42 13.73 11.30 Depletion and depreciation expense (7.40 ) (7.60 ) (7.47 ) (7.50 ) Unrealized gain (loss) on financial instruments (6.50 ) 0.36 (6.14 ) (0.43 ) Other expenses(3) (1.17 ) (1.47 ) (0.76 ) (0.90 ) Dividends on Series C preferred shares (0.12 ) (0.13 ) (0.13 ) (0.13 ) Income tax recovery (expense) 3.65 (0.51 ) 1.37 (0.71 ) Net income (loss) ($/boe) (1.18 ) 1.07 0.60 1.63 Dividends on Series A preferred shares (0.15 ) (0.15 ) (0.15 ) (0.15 ) Net income (loss) to common shareholders ($/boe) (1.33 ) 0.92 0.45 1.48 FINANCIAL Petroleum and natural gas revenue ($000s)(2) 139,857 150,561 318,212 310,092 Cash flow from operating activities ($000s) 97,857 71,825 192,601 163,678 Adjusted funds flow ($000s) 73,957 72,369 190,605 156,027 Per common share – basic ($) 0.28 0.27 0.72 0.59 Per common share – diluted ($) 0.28 0.27 0.72 0.58 Net income (loss) ($000s) (8,458 ) 7,437 8,388 22,562 Net income (loss) to common shareholders ($000s) (9,505 ) 6,390 6,294 20,468 Per common share – basic ($) (0.04 ) 0.02 0.02 0.08 Per common share – diluted ($) (0.04 ) 0.02 0.02 0.08 Common shares outstanding (000s) End of period – basic 265,935 265,845 265,935 265,845 End of period – diluted 287,381 285,253 287,381 285,253 Weighted average common shares for period – basic 265,933 265,820 265,924 265,809 Weighted average common shares for period – diluted 265,933 267,773 266,297 266,793 Dividends on common shares ($000s) 6,981 6,646 13,961 13,291 Dividends on Series A preferred shares ($000s) 1,047 1,047 2,094 2,094 Dividends on Series C preferred shares ($000s) 875 875 1,750 1,750 Total capital expenditures ($000s)(4) 68,532 66,464 200,490 199,608 Long-term debt ($000s) 622,282 617,291 622,282 617,291 Adjusted working capital deficit ($000s) 32,427 44,118 32,427 44,118 Total debt ($000s) 654,709 661,409 654,709 661,409 (1) Beginning in Q1 2019, Birchcliff began presenting condensate and NGLs separately. Prior period sales and volumes have been adjusted to conform to this current period presentation. (2) Excludes the effects of financial instruments but includes the effects of physical delivery contracts. (3) Includes non-cash expenses such as compensation, accretion, amortization of deferred financing fees and other losses. (4) See “Advisories – Capital Expenditures”. Total capital expenditures for the six months ended June 30, 2019 include the $39 million Acquisition (as defined below). (5) Birchcliff adopted IFRS 16: Leases effective January 1, 2019 using the modified retrospective approach; therefore 2018 comparative information has not been restated. This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. For further information regarding the forward-looking statements contained herein, please see “Advisories – Forward-Looking Statements”. In addition, this press release contains references to “adjusted funds flow”, “adjusted funds flow per common share”, “free funds flow”, “operating netback”, “adjusted funds flow netback”, “total cash costs”, “adjusted working capital deficit” and “total debt”, which do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP. For further information regarding these non-GAAP measures, please see “Non-GAAP Measures”. Q2 2019 FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL RESULTS FINANCIAL RESULTS Production Birchcliff’s production averaged 78,453 boe/d in Q2 2019, a 3% increase from 76,296 boe/d in Q2 2018. The increase was primarily attributable to the incremental production from new horizontal oil wells in Gordondale and horizontal condensate-rich natural gas wells in Pouce Coupe that were brought on production in Q2 2019, partially offset by production curtailments on the NGTL and TCPL Canadian Mainline systems and natural production declines. Production consisted of approximately 6% light oil, 7% condensate, 9% NGLs and 78% natural gas in Q2 2019 as compared to 7% light oil, 5% condensate, 8% NGLs and 80% natural gas in Q2 2018. Birchcliff’s liquids production weighting increased by 8% from Q2 2018. The change in the commodity production mix was primarily attributable to the addition of condensate-rich natural gas wells in Pouce Coupe and an increase in C3+ recovered from the natural gas stream at Birchcliff’s 100% owned and operated natural gas processing plant located in Pouce Coupe (the “Pouce Coupe Gas Plant”). Production from Pouce Coupe was 51,746 boe/d (66% of total corporate production) in Q2 2019 as compared to 47,761 boe/d (63% of total corporate production) in Q2 2018. Production from Gordondale was 26,703 boe/d (34% of total corporate production) in Q2 2019 as compared to 28,308 boe/d (37% of total corporate production) in Q2 2018. Adjusted Funds Flow Birchcliff’s adjusted funds flow for Q2 2019 was $74.0 million, or $0.28 per basic common share, a 2% increase and a 4% increase, respectively, from $72.4 million and $0.27 per basic common share in Q2 2018. The increases were primarily due to lower royalty expense and a realized gain on financial instruments in Q2 2019 as compared to a realized loss on financial instruments in Q2 2018, largely offset by an increase in transportation and other expense as a result of Birchcliff’s increased Dawn and AECO firm service and lower reported revenue. Revenue received by the Corporation was lower mainly due to a decrease in the average realized liquids pricing, partially offset by increased production of high-value condensate in Pouce Coupe. Net Loss to Common Shareholders Birchcliff recorded a net loss to common shareholders of $9.5 million, or $0.04 per basic common share, in Q2 2019 as compared to net income to common shareholders of $6.4 million and $0.02 per basic common share in Q2 2018. The change to a net loss position from a net income position was primarily due to a $46.4 million unrealized mark-to-market loss on financial instruments recorded in Q2 2019 as compared to a $2.5 million unrealized mark-to-market gain on financial instruments in Q2 2018, partially offset by a $26.1 million income tax recovery in Q2 2019 as compared to a $3.6 million income tax expense in Q2 2018. The unrealized mark-to-market loss on financial instruments on an after-tax basis was $35.7 million, or $0.13 per basic common share. Included in the $26.1 million income tax recovery in Q2 2019 was approximately $18.9 million related to the reduction in future income tax liability resulting from the change in Alberta’s corporate income tax rate from 12% to 8% over the next four years. Operating Expense Birchcliff’s operating expense was $3.17/boe in Q2 2019, a 6% decrease from $3.36/boe in Q2 2018. The decrease was primarily due to: (i) a step-down reduction in natural gas processing fees which became effective January 1, 2019 at AltaGas’ deep-cut sour gas processing facility in Gordondale; (ii) reduced take-or-pay processing commitments in Pouce Coupe beginning in November 2018, which resulted in natural gas being redirected from third-party facilities to the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant; and (iii) increased operating efficiencies resulting from expanded liquids-handling capabilities in Pouce Coupe. Transportation and Other Expense Birchcliff’s transportation and other expense was $4.29/boe in Q2 2019, an 18% increase from $3.64/boe in Q2 2018. The increase was primarily due to an additional 30,000 GJ/d of firm service transportation to Dawn which became available on November 1, 2018 and unused firm transportation costs associated with Birchcliff’s commitments on the NGTL system. G&A Expense Birchcliff’s G&A expense was $0.87/boe in Q2 2019, a 1% decrease from $0.88/boe in Q2 2018. The decrease was primarily due to higher corporate production, with no significant change to aggregate G&A expense. Interest Expense Birchcliff’s interest expense was $0.92/boe in Q2 2019, a 4% decrease from $0.96/boe in Q2 2018. The decrease was primarily due to higher corporate production, with no significant change to aggregate interest expense. Total Cash Costs Birchcliff’s total cash costs were $10.00/boe in Q2 2019, a 4% decrease from $10.37/boe in Q2 2018. The decrease was primarily due to lower per boe royalty and operating expenses, partially offset by higher transportation and other expense. Operating Netback Birchcliff’s operating netback was $11.38/boe in Q2 2019, a 14% decrease from $13.16/boe in Q2 2018. The decrease was primarily due to a 10% decrease in the corporate average realized sales price, partially offset by lower per boe total cash costs as noted above. Pouce Coupe Gas Plant Netbacks During the six months ended June 30, 2019, Birchcliff processed approximately 69% of its total corporate natural gas production and 59% of its total corporate production through the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant as compared to 67% and 57%, respectively, during the six months ended June 30, 2018. The following table sets forth Birchcliff’s average daily production and operating netback for wells producing to the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant for the periods indicated: Six months ended June 30, 2019 Six months ended June 30, 2018 Average production: Condensate (bbls/d) 3,272 2,147 NGLs (bbls/d) 753 51 Natural gas (Mcf/d) 246,920 249,317 Total (boe/d) 45,178 43,751 Liquids-to-gas ratio (bbls/MMcf) 16.3 8.8 Netback and cost: $/Mcfe $/boe $/Mcfe $/boe Petroleum and natural gas revenue(1) 3.38 20.30 2.91 17.49 Royalty expense (0.06 ) (0.35 ) (0.05 ) (0.29 ) Operating expense(2) (0.39 ) (2.34 ) (0.39 ) (2.36 ) Transportation and other expense (0.75 ) (4.55 ) (0.55 ) (3.33 ) Operating netback $2.18 $13.06 $1.92 $11.51 Operating margin(3) 64 % 64 % 66 % 66 % (1) Excludes the effects of financial instruments but includes the effects of physical delivery contracts. Please see “Q2 2019 Financial and Operational Results – Financial Results – Risk Management”. (2) Represents plant and field operating expense. (3) Operating margin is calculated by dividing the operating netback for the period by the petroleum and natural gas revenue for the period. Birchcliff’s liquids-to-gas ratio increased by 85% as compared to the six months ended June 30, 2018 primarily due to: (i) the re-configuration of Phases V and VI of the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant in Q4 2018 which provided for shallow-cut capability, allowing Birchcliff to extract C3+ from the natural gas stream; and (ii) specifically targeted condensate-rich natural gas wells in Pouce Coupe. The amount of condensate being produced at the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant increased by 52% as compared to the six months ended June 30, 2018. The increase in the liquids-to-gas ratio improved Birchcliff’s average realized sales price and operating netback at the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant. Debt At June 30, 2019, Birchcliff had significant liquidity with long-term bank debt of $622.3 million (June 30, 2018: $617.3 million) from credit facilities in the aggregate principal amount of $1.0 billion (June 30, 2018: $950.0 million), leaving $357.6 million of unutilized credit capacity after adjusting for outstanding letters of credit and unamortized interest and fees. Total debt at June 30, 2019 was $654.7 million as compared to $661.4 million at June 30, 2018. As previously disclosed in Birchcliff’s press release dated May 15, 2019, the agreement governing Birchcliff’s extendible revolving credit facilities (the “Credit Facilities”) was amended effective May 10, 2019 to: (i) extend the maturity dates of each of the extendible revolving syndicated term credit facility (the “Syndicated Credit Facility”) and the extendible revolving working capital facility (the “Working Capital Facility”) from May 11, 2021 to May 11, 2022; and (ii) increase the borrowing base limit to $1.0 billion from $950.0 million, with the Syndicated Credit Facility being increased to $900.0 million from $850.0 million and the Working Capital Facility remaining at $100.0 million. The Credit Facilities do not contain any financial maintenance covenants. Commodity Prices The following table sets forth the average benchmark index prices and Birchcliff’s average realized sales prices for the periods indicated: Three months ended June 30, 2019 Three months ended June 30, 2018 % Change Average benchmark index prices: Light oil – WTI Cushing (US$/bbl) 59.79 67.88 (12 %) Light oil – MSW (Mixed Sweet) (CDN$/bbl)(1) 73.18 80.30 (9 %) Natural gas – NYMEX HH (US$/MMBtu)(2) 2.64 2.83 (7 %) Natural gas – AECO 5A Daily (CDN$/GJ) 0.98 1.12 (13 %) Natural gas – AECO 7A Month Ahead (US$/MMBtu)(2) 0.87 0.80 9 % Natural gas – Dawn Day Ahead (US$/MMBtu)(2) 2.34 2.77 (16 %) Natural gas – ATP 5A Day Ahead (CDN$/GJ) 1.17 1.46 (20 %) Exchange rate (CDN$ to US$1) 1.3376 1.2911 4 % Exchange rate (US$ to CDN$1) 0.7476 0.7745 (3 %) Birchcliff’s average realized sales prices:(3) Light oil (CDN$/bbl) 72.25 79.55 (9 %) Condensate (CDN$/bbl) 71.69 87.52 (18 %) NGLs (CDN$/bbl) 11.13 21.94 (49 %) Natural gas (CDN$/Mcf) 1.95 2.01 (3 %) Birchcliff’s average realized sales price (CDN$/boe) 19.59 21.68 (10 %) (1) Previously referred to as the “Edmonton Par price”. (2) $1.00/MMBtu = $1.00/Mcf based on a standard heat value Mcf. Please see “Advisories – MMBtu Pricing Conversions”. (3) Excludes the effects of financial instruments but includes the effects of physical delivery contracts. Marketing and Natural Gas Market Diversification Birchcliff continues to be strategic and opportunistic in advancing its market access initiatives. The Corporation actively monitors market conditions and executes a marketing strategy that diversifies its sales portfolio to ensure that production gets to market at optimal pricing. Birchcliff also proactively secures takeaway capacity for future development projects and uses excess transportation capacity to mitigate the impact of third-party infrastructure outages. Birchcliff’s physical natural gas sales exposure currently consists of AECO, Dawn and Alliance markets. In addition, the Corporation has various financial instruments outstanding that provide it with exposure to NYMEX HH pricing. Please see “Q2 2019 Financial and Operational Results – Financial Results – Risk Management”. The following table details Birchcliff’s effective sales, production and average realized sales price for natural gas and liquids for Q2 2019, after taking into account the Corporation’s financial instruments: Three months ended June 30, 2019 Effective sales (CDN$000s) Percentage of total sales (%) Effective production (per day) Percentage of total natural gas production (%) Percentage of total corporate production (%) Effective average realized sales price (CDN$) Markets AECO(1) 12,760 9 126,321 Mcf 34 27 1.11/Mcf Dawn 41,104 28 135,953 Mcf 37 29 3.32/Mcf Alliance 1,856 1 13,727 Mcf 4 3 1.49/Mcf NYMEX HH(2) 15,355 11 91,032 Mcf 25 19 1.85/Mcf Total natural gas 71,075 49 367,033 Mcf 100 78 2.13/Mcf Light oil 31,907 22 4,853 bbls 6 72.25/bbl Condensate 35,906 25 5,504 bbls 7 71.69/bbl NGLs 7,011 4 6,923 bbls 9 11.13/bbl Total liquids 74,824 51 17,280 bbls 22 47.58/bbl Total corporate 145,899 100 78,453 boe 100 20.44/boe (1) A portion of AECO 5A sales and production that effectively received NYMEX HH pricing under Birchcliff’s long-term physical and financial NYMEX/AECO 7A basis swap contracts has been included as effective sales and production in NYMEX HH markets. Any impact from the sales pricing variance between the average AECO 5A and AECO 7A benchmark price during the period has also been included as effective sales in NYMEX HH markets. (2) Birchcliff sold AECO 7A basis swaps for 100,000 MMBtu/d at an average contract price of NYMEX less US$1.28/MMBtu during Q2 2019. Effectively 91% of the Corporation’s sales revenue, representing 66% of its total natural gas production and 73% of its total corporate production, was generated from markets outside of AECO in Q2 2019, after taking into account its liquids sales and long-term financial NYMEX/AECO basis swap position. The following table sets forth Birchcliff’s sales, production, average realized sales price, transportation costs and natural gas sales netback by natural gas market for the periods indicated, before taking into account the Corporation’s financial instruments: Three months ended June 30, 2019 Natural gas sales(1) (CDN$000s) Percentage of natural gas sales (%) Natural gas production (Mcf/d) Percentage of natural gas production (%) Average realized natural gas sales price(1) (CDN$/Mcf) Natural gas transportation costs(2) (CDN$/Mcf) Natural gas sales netback(3) (CDN$/Mcf) AECO 22,049 34 217,353 59 1.11 0.32 0.79 Dawn(4) 41,104 63 135,953 37 3.32 1.38 1.94 Alliance(5) 1,856 3 13,727 4 1.49 –(5) 1.49 Total 65,009 100 367,033 100 1.95 0.71 1.24 Three months ended June 30, 2018 Natural gas sales(1) (CDN$000s) Percentage of natural gas sales (%) Natural gas production (Mcf/d) Percentage of natural gas production (%) Average realized natural gas sales price(1) (CDN$/Mcf) Natural gas transportation costs(2) (CDN$/Mcf) Natural gas sales netback(3) (CDN$/Mcf) AECO 25,092 38 219,135 60 1.27 0.29 0.98 Dawn(4) 37,542 56 108,950 30 3.79 1.34 2.45 Alliance(5) 3,985 6 36,275 10 1.21 –(5) 1.21 Total 66,619 100 364,360 100 2.01 0.58 1.43 (1) Excludes the effects of financial instruments but includes the effects of physical delivery contracts. (2) Reflects costs to transport natural gas from the field receipt point to the delivery sales trading hub. (3) Natural gas sales netback denotes the average realized natural gas sales price less natural gas transportation costs. (4) Birchcliff has agreements for the firm service transportation of an aggregate of 175,000 GJ/d of natural gas on TCPL’s Canadian Mainline for a 10-year term, whereby natural gas is transported to the Dawn trading hub in Southern Ontario. The first tranche of this service (120,000 GJ/d) became available on November 1, 2017 and the second tranche (30,000 GJ/d) became available on November 1, 2018, bringing the total to 150,000 GJ/d. The last tranche of service (25,000 GJ/d) will become available on November 1, 2019. (5) Birchcliff has sales agreements with a third party marketer to sell and deliver into the Alliance pipeline system. Alliance sales are recorded net of transportation tolls. The Corporation’s average realized natural gas sales price was $1.95/Mcf in Q2 2019, an 89% premium to the average AECO 5A benchmark price of $1.03/Mcf in the quarter. During Q2 2019, approximately 66% of Birchcliff’s natural gas sales revenue, representing approximately 41% of its total natural gas production, was generated from the Dawn and Alliance markets with an average realized natural gas sales price of $3.15/Mcf, a 184% premium to Birchcliff’s average realized natural gas sales price of $1.11/Mcf from the AECO market in Q2 2019. Birchcliff’s average realized natural gas sales netback from the Dawn and Alliance markets was $1.90/Mcf, a 141% premium to its realized natural gas sales netback of $0.79/Mcf from the AECO market in Q2 2019. For information regarding Birchcliff’s natural gas market exposure during 2019, please see “Outlook and Guidance”. Risk Management Birchcliff engages in risk management activities by utilizing various financial instruments and physical delivery contracts to diversify its sales points or fix commodity prices and market interest rates, including NYMEX/AECO basis swaps which fix the basis differential between AECO and NYMEX HH prices, effectively providing for a floating NYMEX HH price. Birchcliff realized a cash gain on financial instruments of $5.3 million in Q2 2019 as compared to a realized cash loss of $6.5 million in Q2 2018. The realized gain was primarily due to the settlement of financial NYMEX/AECO basis swap contracts that were outstanding in the period with an average basis differential that was above the average contract basis in Q2 2019. Birchcliff recorded an unrealized non-cash loss of $46.4 million on financial instruments in Q2 2019 due to a decrease in the fair value of its financial instruments from a net asset position of $21.3 million at March 31, 2019 to a net liability position of $25.1 million at June 30, 2019. The fair value of the net asset or liability is the estimated value to settle outstanding financial contracts at a point in time. The decrease in the fair value of Birchcliff’s financial instruments during Q2 2019 was primarily attributable to the decrease in the forward basis spread between NYMEX HH and AECO 7A for contracts outstanding at June 30, 2019 as compared to March 31, 2019 and the settlement of financial contracts in Q2 2019. The unrealized gains and losses on financial NYMEX HH basis contracts can fluctuate materially from period-to-period due to movement in the forward NYMEX HH and AECO 7A strip prices. Unrealized gains and losses on financial instruments do not impact adjusted funds flow and may differ materially from the actual gains or losses realized on the eventual cash settlement of financial contracts in a period. For further information regarding Birchcliff’s risk management program, including a summary of Birchcliff’s outstanding risk management contracts as at June 30, 2019, please see note 13 to the Corporation’s unaudited interim condensed financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2019 and the MD&A under the heading “Discussion of Operations – Risk Management”. OPERATIONAL RESULTS Overview Birchcliff’s operations are concentrated within its one core area, the Peace River Arch of Alberta, which is centred northwest of Grande Prairie, Alberta adjacent to the Alberta/British Columbia border, where the Corporation is focused on its high-quality Montney/Doig Resource Play and the exploration and development of its low-cost natural gas, crude oil and liquids-rich assets. Within the Montney/Doig Resource Play, Birchcliff’s operations are primarily concentrated in the Pouce Coupe and Gordondale areas of Alberta where it owns large contiguous blocks of high working interest land and the Corporation continues to implement various initiatives in order to capitalize on its large contiguous land base. Birchcliff’s strong capital and operating efficiencies are supported by the fact that it owns and operates many of its own facilities, including the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant. In addition, Birchcliff is the operator of predominantly 100% working interest lands, which allows it to have greater control over its costs and its pace of development and greater flexibility to target liquids. Birchcliff is also focused on continuous improvements in all aspects of its business. In 2019, Birchcliff is continuing to pilot innovative technologies in its drilling and completions operations in order to achieve better well results and maximize return on capital. Capital Activities and Investment During Q2 2019, Birchcliff’s capital activities were primarily directed towards drilling and completion activities. Total capital expenditures in the quarter were $68.5 million, with total capital expenditures of $32.6 million in Pouce Coupe and $35.4 million in Gordondale. F&D capital expenditures in Q2 2019 were $67.9 million. The following table sets forth the number of wells drilled and brought on production in Q2 2019: Area Total wells drilled in Q2 2019 Total wells brought on production in Q2 2019 Pouce Coupe Montney D1 horizontal natural gas wells 1 4 Montney D2 horizontal natural gas wells 0 1 Montney C horizontal natural gas wells 1 1 Total – Pouce Coupe 2 6 Gordondale Montney D2 horizontal oil wells 2 5 Montney D1 horizontal oil wells 1 3 Total – Gordondale 3 8 TOTAL – COMBINED 5 14 OPERATIONAL UPDATE Achievements Year-to-Date Birchcliff has been very active in its execution of the 2019 Capital Program. By the end of Q2 2019, Birchcliff had completed the drilling of all 17 (17.0 net) wells that were originally contemplated under the program, 100% of which were successful, and had brought on production all 26 (26.0 net) wells as originally planned, including 9 wells that were drilled and rig released in 2018. Additionally, Birchcliff has accomplished the following: Strong Production – Birchcliff has seen strong production rates from its wells brought on production in 2019, with wells meeting or exceeding expectations, and the Corporation’s average production for Q2 2019 was ahead of its internal budget. Given Birchcliff’s production results, it expects that it would have achieved the mid-point of its previous 2019 annual average production guidance of 76,000 to 78,000 boe/d. Liquids Success – The 2019 Capital Program is focused on the drilling of condensate-rich natural gas wells in Pouce Coupe and crude oil wells in Gordondale. Birchcliff has been encouraged with the results of the wells brought on production year-to-date, with strong condensate rates from its Pouce Coupe wells and strong oil rates from its Gordondale wells. The Corporation recently brought on production a six-well pad in Pouce Coupe and a five-well pad in Gordondale, both of which have had encouraging initial production rates as discussed in further detail below. As a result of the Corporation’s increased focus on liquids, Birchcliff’s liquids production weighting for Q2 2019 increased by 8% as compared to Q2 2018. Capital Program and Infrastructure – All major capital projects completed year-to-date were on budget and on time. Birchcliff has completed or advanced several infrastructure projects in 2019 which will help provide for operational efficiencies and future growth: ○ The Corporation completed the construction of two pipeline connections between its Pouce Coupe and Gordondale areas. The first connection allows Birchcliff to flow natural gas between the two areas, which helps to reduce downtime and operating costs. The second connection allows Birchcliff to flow condensate from Pouce Coupe to its large oil batteries in Gordondale, which enables the Corporation to blend oil and condensate, resulting in better pricing and netbacks on its liquids. ○ In Pouce Coupe, Birchcliff has initiated the construction of a 20,000 bbls/d inlet liquids-handling facility at the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant which will give it the ability to grow its condensate production in Pouce Coupe from 3,000 to 10,000 bbls/d. It is anticipated that this facility will be brought online in Q3 2020. ○ In Gordondale, Birchcliff completed the construction of a pipeline to debottleneck the southeastern part of the field. In addition, Birchcliff recently installed and commissioned a related field compressor resulting in an increase in production from the drop in line pressure. Solid Adjusted Funds Flow and Free Funds Flow – Birchcliff generated $74.0 million and $190.6 million of adjusted funds flow, respectively, for the three and six months ended June 30, 2019. Birchcliff’s F&D capital expenditures for Q2 2019 were 9% less than its adjusted funds flow in Q2 2019 and its F&D capital expenditures for the six months ended June 30, 2019 were 20% less than its adjusted funds flow for the same period. Birchcliff generated $6.0 million and $31.2 million of free funds flow, respectively, for the three months and six months ended June 30, 2019. Expanded 2019 Capital Program As a result of Birchcliff’s achievements year-to-date and its strong quarterly results and balance sheet, Birchcliff has expanded the 2019 Capital Program to include the drilling of an additional 7 (7.0 net) horizontal wells in 2019, consisting of 3 condensate-rich natural gas wells in Pouce Coupe and 4 oil wells in Gordondale. It is anticipated that all of these wells will be brought on production by November 1, 2019. In total, the expanded 2019 Capital Program contemplates the drilling of 24 (24.0 net) wells and the bringing on production of 33 (33.0 net) wells. As a result of this expansion, Birchcliff has increased its 2019 F&D capital budget to $242 million from $204 million. Notwithstanding this increase, Birchcliff’s capital expenditures in 2019 are still expected to be significantly less than its forecast of 2019 adjusted funds flow and Birchcliff anticipates that it will generate significant free funds flow in 2019. See “Outlook and Guidance”. Benefits of Expanded Capital Program Birchcliff expects that this additional capital investment in 2019 will result in a number of benefits, including the following: A more efficient capital spending profile in 2020, reducing the amount of capital needed to be spent by Birchcliff in 2020. This more efficient capital spending profile is also expected to result in a more consistent production profile in 2020 and allow Birchcliff to maintain annual average production in 2020 at or near current levels. Efficiencies resulting from load levelling operational activities as employees and contractors will be able to work at a steadier pace throughout 2019 and 2020. Birchcliff’s 2019 annual average production is expected to increase by approximately 1,000 boe/d as the additional wells are expected to be brought on production by November 1, 2019. An increase to Birchcliff’s 2019 and 2020 adjusted funds flow as a result of the additional production volumes. Furthermore, as the additional wells are expected to be brought on production by November 1, 2019, Birchcliff expects to be able to take advantage of the higher natural gas prices at AECO that are typically seen in the winter. As a result, Birchcliff has increased its 2019 guidance for adjusted funds flow to $335 million from $330 million. This additional capital investment, which is focused on oil and condensate-rich natural gas wells, is expected to generate positive rates of return in the current environment. Birchcliff will be able to add the additional production volumes at a very low cost, as it can utilize existing processing capacity that is available at the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant and unutilized transportation capacity that is available on the NGTL system. Capital Spending Allocation The following table sets forth details regarding Birchcliff’s expected capital spending allocation under the expanded 2019 Capital Program and a comparison to the original 2019 Capital Program: Classification Gross Wells Net Wells Capital (MM) Change in Capital Previous(1) Revised Previous(1) Revised Previous(1) Revised Drilling and Development Pouce Coupe(2)(3) Montney D1 horizontal natural gas wells 6 9 6.0 9.0 $34.8 $49.3 42% Montney D2 horizontal natural gas wells 2 2 2.0 2.0 $11.4 $12.3 8% Montney C horizontal natural gas wells 1 1 1.0 1.0 $6.2 $6.0 (3%) Gordondale(2)(3) Montney D2 horizontal oil wells 5 7 5.0 7.0 $27.4 $38.2 39% Montney D1 horizontal oil wells 3 5 3.0 5.0 $16.2 $26.3 62% Additional Well Completions Capital – – – – $26.2(4) $25.3(4) (3%) Total Drilling and Development 17 24 17.0 24.0 $122.2 $157.4 29% Facilities and Infrastructure(5) $33.9 $35.1 4% Maintenance and Optimization $22.8 $24.7 8% Land and Seismic(6) $8.4 $8.6 2% Other $16.7 $16.2 (3%) TOTAL(7) $204.0 $242.0(8) 19% (1) As previously disclosed on February 13, 2019. (2) On a DCCET basis, the average well cost in 2019 is estimated to be $5.7 million for Pouce Coupe and $5.6 million (previously $5.8 million) for Gordondale. These costs can vary depending on factors such as the size of the associated multi-well pads, the costs of construction, the existence of pipelines and other infrastructure and the distance to existing or planned pipelines and other infrastructure. (3) On a DCCET basis. (4) The amount disclosed in the “Previous” column represented the estimated completion, equipping and tie-in costs associated with the 9 (9.0 net) wells that were drilled and rig released in Q4 2018, as the amount of the actual costs was not yet known when the previous 2019 Capital Program was disclosed on February 13, 2019. The amount disclosed in the “Revised” column represents the actual completion, equipping and tie-in costs associated with such wells. (5) Includes capital for the inlet liquids-handling facility at the Pouce Coupe Gas Plant and other infrastructure enhancement projects, pipeline twinning and replacements and water storage. Birchcliff plans on spending approximately $9.5 million on the associated engineering and long-lead equipment for the inlet liquids-handling facility in 2019. (6) Includes capital for crown sales and rental payments but does not include other property acquisitions and dispositions. (7) The estimate of capital set forth in the table above represents F&D capital expenditures and does not take into account the purchase price for the $39 million asset acquisition in Pouce Coupe completed by Birchcliff in Q1 2019 (the “Acquisition”) or any other acquisitions or dispositions. After taking into account the purchase price for the Acquisition, Birchcliff’s revised estimate of total capital expenditures in 2019 is $283 million. See “Outlook and Guidance”. Net property acquisitions and dispositions have not been included in the table above as these amounts are generally unbudgeted. Birchcliff makes acquisitions and dispositions in the ordinary course of business and any acquisitions and dispositions completed during 2019 could have an impact on Birchcliff’s capital expenditures, production, adjusted funds flow, costs and total debt, which impact could be material. See “Advisories – Capital Expenditures”. (8) Approximately 50% of Birchcliff’s F&D capital expenditures are directed towards its Pouce Coupe area and approximately 45% towards its Gordondale area (previously 40%). Birchcliff expects that its F&D capital investment in 2019 will now be approximately $122 million in Pouce Coupe (previously $100 million) and $109 million in Gordondale (previously $84 million). Wells Drilled and Brought on Production The following tables summarize the wells that Birchcliff has drilled and brought on production year-to-date, as well as the remaining and total number of wells to be drilled and brought on production in 2019: Wells Drilled – 2019 Area Wells drilled year to-date Remaining wells to be drilled in 2019 Total wells to be drilled in 2019 Pouce Coupe Montney D1 horizontal natural gas wells 6 3 9 Montney D2 horizontal natural gas wells 2 0 2 Montney C horizontal natural gas wells 1 0 1 Total – Pouce Coupe 9 3 12 Gordondale Montney D2 horizontal oil wells 7 0 7 Montney D1 horizontal oil wells 5 0 5 Total – Gordondale 12 0 12 TOTAL – COMBINED 21 3 24 Wells Bought on Production – 2019 Area Wells brought on production year-to-date Remaining wells to be brought on production in 2019 Total wells to be brought on production in 2019(1) Pouce Coupe Montney D1 horizontal natural gas wells 11 3 14 Montney D2 horizontal natural gas wells 2 0 2 Montney C horizontal natural gas wells 1 0 1 Total – Pouce Coupe 14 3 17 Gordondale Montney D2 horizontal oil wells 7 2 9 Montney D1 horizontal oil wells 5 2 7 Total – Gordondale 12 4 16 TOTAL – COMBINED 26 7 33 (1) Includes 9 (9.0) net wells that were drilled and rig released in Q4 2018. Pouce Coupe Key focus areas for Pouce Coupe in 2019 are the drilling of condensate-rich natural gas wells and the further exploitation and delineation of condensate-rich trends in the Montney D1, D2 and C intervals. Birchcliff recently brought on production a six-well pad located at 14-06-079-12W6M on the lands that Birchcliff acquired pursuant to the Acquisition in Q1 2019. The six wells were drilled in three different intervals (4 in the Montney D1, 1 in the Montney D2 and 1 in the Montney C). During the initial 30 days of production, this six-well pad was flowing inline post-fracture treatment raw natural gas, condensate and frac water. The production rates of the wells have been stabilizing as the frac water flowing back to surface diminishes over time and during the initial 30 days of production, the stabilized flow of the wells had an aggregate average production rate of 6,350 boe/d (27.9 MMcf/d of raw natural gas and 1,690 bbls/d of condensate). For further details regarding these initial production rates, please see “Advisories – Initial Production Rates” and Birchcliff’s updated corporate presentation available on its website at www.birchcliffenergy.com/investors/corporate-presentation/. Gordondale Key focus areas for Gordondale in 2019 are the drilling of crude oil wells and the further exploitation and delineation of oil in the Montney D1 and D2 intervals, specifically in the southeastern part of the Gordondale field. Birchcliff recently brought on production a five-well pad located at 01-10-078-11W6M. The five wells were drilled in two different intervals (2 in the Montney D1 and 3 in the Montney D2). During the initial 30 days of production, this five-well pad was flowing inline post-fracture oil, raw natural gas and frac water. The production rates of the wells have been stabilizing as the frac water flowing back to surface diminishes over time and during the initial 30 days of production, the stabilized flow of the wells had an aggregate average production rate of 4,446 boe/d (2,114 bbls/d of oil and 14.0 MMcf/d of raw natural gas). For further details regarding these initial production rates, please see “Advisories – Initial Production Rates” and Birchcliff’s updated corporate presentation available on its website at www.birchcliffenergy.com/investors/corporate-presentation/. OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE Birchcliff currently believes that it is well positioned to generate significant free funds flow in 2019 supported by its natural gas diversification and financial risk management contracts and its mix of long-life and low-decline assets, which provide it with a stable base of production. Birchcliff is committed to maintaining financial flexibility and a strong balance sheet and will allocate remaining free funds flow based on what it believes will provide the most value to its shareholders. Birchcliff expects to generate approximately $335 million of adjusted funds flow and $93 million of free funds flow in 2019. Birchcliff has revised its 2019 guidance and commodity price assumptions to reflect the expansion to the 2019 Capital Program, the Corporation’s results year-to-date and current economic conditions. Significant changes include the following: Birchcliff has increased its 2019 annual average production guidance to 77,000 to 79,000 boe/d from 76,000 to 78,000 boe/d to reflect the expansion to the 2019 Capital Program and the strong production performance of its wells year-to-date. As a result of a lower commodity price forecast for natural gas in 2019, Birchcliff has reduced the range of its average royalty expense in 2019 to $1.10/boe to $1.30/boe. Birchcliff’s estimate of adjusted funds flow has increased to $335 million from $330 million and its estimate of free funds flow has decreased to $93 million from $126 million. F&D and total capital expenditures in 2019 are now estimated to be $242 million and $283 million, respectively. The following table sets forth Birchcliff’s previous and revised guidance and commodity price assumptions for 2019: Previous 2019 Guidance and Assumptions(1) Revised 2019 Guidance and Assumptions(2) Production Annual average production (boe/d) 76,000 – 78,000 77,000 – 79,000 % Light oil 7% 6% % Condensate 6% 7% % NGLs 8% 9% % Natural gas 79% 78% Average Expenses ($/boe) Royalty 1.30 – 1.50 1.10 – 1.30 Operating 3.15 – 3.35 3.15 – 3.35 Transportation and other(3) 4.65 – 4.85 4.65 – 4.85 Adjusted Funds Flow (MM$) 330 335(4) F&D Capital Expenditures (MM$) 204 242(5) Free Funds Flow (MM$)(6) 126 93 Total Capital Expenditures (MM$) 245 283(5) Natural Gas Market Exposure(7) AECO exposure as a % of total natural gas production 35% 34% Dawn exposure as a % of total natural gas production 39% 38% NYMEX HH exposure as a % of total natural gas production 25% 25% Alliance exposure as a % of total natural gas production 1% 3% Commodity Prices Average WTI spot price (US$/bbl) 56.00 57.50 Average WTI-MSW differential (CDN$/bbl) 10.00 7.50 Average AECO 5A spot price (CDN$/GJ) 1.65 1.50 Average Dawn spot price (CDN$/GJ) 3.40 3.05 Average NYMEX HH spot price (US$/MMBtu)(8) 3.00 2.70 Exchange rate (CDN$ to US$1) 1.32 1.32 (1) As previously disclosed on March 13, 2019. Birchcliff’s previous guidance for its commodity mix, average expenses, funds flow, capital expenditures and natural gas market exposure in 2019 was based on an annual average production rate of 77,000 boe/d during 2019, which was the mid-point of Birchcliff’s previous annual average production guidance for 2019. (2) Birchcliff’s revised guidance for its commodity mix, average expenses, funds flow, capital expenditures and natural gas market exposure in 2019 is based on an annual average production rate of 78,000 boe/d during 2019, which is the mid-point of Birchcliff’s revised annual average production guidance for 2019. (3) Includes transportation tolls for 150,000 GJ/d of natural gas sold at the Dawn price from January 1, 2019 to October 31, 2019 and 175,000 GJ/d from November 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019. Also includes any unused firm transportation costs associated with Birchcliff’s commitments on the NGTL system. (4) Birchcliff’s estimate of adjusted funds flow takes into account the settlement of financial and physical commodity risk management contracts outstanding as at August 13, 2019. Please see “Q2 2019 Financial and Operational Results – Financial Results – Risk Management”. (5) Birchcliff’s estimate of F&D capital expenditures corresponds to Birchcliff’s revised 2019 capital budget of $242 million. This estimate excludes the purchase price for the Acquisition and any other net potential acquisitions and dispositions. Birchcliff’s estimate of total capital expenditures includes the purchase price for the Acquisition; however, this estimate does not take into account any other potential acquisitions or dispositions as these amounts are unbudgeted. The estimate of total capital expenditures also includes minor administrative assets. Please see “Advisories – Capital Expenditures”. (6) Free funds flow is calculated as adjusted funds flow less F&D capital expenditures and is prior to administrative assets, acquisitions, dispositions, dividend payments and abandonment and reclamation obligations. Please see “Non-GAAP Measures”. (7) Birchcliff’s guidance regarding its natural gas market exposure in 2019 assumes: (i) 150,000 GJ/d being sold at the Dawn index price from January 1, 2019 to October 31, 2019 and 175,000 GJ/d from November 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019; (ii) 5 MMcf/d being sold at Alliance’s Trading Pool daily index price; and (iii) 100,000 MMBtu/d being hedged at a fixed basis differential between the AECO 7A price and the NYMEX HH price. (8) $1.00 per MMBtu equals $1.00 per Mcf based on a standard heat value of 37.4 MJ/m3 or a heat uplift of 1.055 when converting from $/GJ. Birchcliff continues to be strategic and opportunistic in advancing its market access initiatives and its physical natural gas sales exposure currently consists of AECO, Dawn and Alliance markets, with additional exposure to NYMEX HH pricing through its outstanding financial instruments. Effective November 1, 2019, Birchcliff’s level of firm service on TCPL’s Canadian Mainline to Dawn will increase to 175,000 GJ/d from 150,000 GJ/d. Effectively 88% of Birchcliff’s total revenue in 2019, representing 74% of its total production, is expected to be based on non-AECO benchmark prices after taking into account its commodity risk management contracts and expected sales from liquids and based on the commodity price assumptions set forth in the table above. This natural gas market diversification together with Birchcliff’s financial risk management contracts will help to further strengthen Birchcliff’s balance sheet and protect its cash flow and project economics. The following table illustrates the expected impact of changes in commodity prices and the CDN/US exchange rate on the Corporation’s estimate of adjusted funds flow for 2019 of $335 million, after taking into account its financial instruments outstanding as at August 13, 2019: Estimated change to 2019 adjusted funds flow (CDNMM$)(1)(2) Change in WTI US$1.00/bbl 5.0 Change in NYMEX HH US$0.10/MMBtu 3.4 Change in Dawn CDN$0.10/GJ 5.6 Change in AECO 5A CDN$0.10/GJ 6.4 Change in CDN/US exchange rate CDN$0.01 2.6 (1) Please see the guidance table above. (2) The calculated impact on adjusted funds flow is only applicable within the limited range of change indicated. Calculations are performed independently and may not be indicative of actual results. Actual results may vary materially when multiple variables change at the same time. Changes in assumed commodity prices and variances in production estimates can have a significant impact on the Corporation’s estimate of adjusted funds flow. For further information regarding Birchcliff’s guidance, please see “Advisories – Forward-Looking Statements”.
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Enbridge
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Eagle Spirit Energy Holdings, Ltd.
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ARC Energy Research Institute
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National Energy Board
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